“A survey technique called “list randomization” allows researchers to calculate the average response to a question in a population, without being able to identify the response of any one individual. In theory this gives people the freedom to answer truthfully, knowing that even the interviewer won’t be able to tell what they answered.”
Dean Karlan y Jonathan Zimmerman utilizan esta aproximación (paper acá) para evaluar la forma en que los beneficiarios de micropréstamos utilizan estos recursos:
“We asked clients in Group A how many of these three statements apply to them:
1. I used part of my Arariwa loan to buy merchandise for my economic activity.
2. I used part of my Arariwa loan to buy equipment for my economic activity.
3. I shared my loan with another person.
Clients in Group B received these three statements with one additional statement:
4. I used at least a quarter of my Arariwa loan on household items, such as food, a TV, a radio, etc.
Given that we expect the number of answers to the first three statements to be the same on average in both populations, we can do a simple comparison of means to figure out how many people in group B said “yes” to that final statement.
So we did this with a few variations of questions, and we also asked people these questions individually and directly on a separate occasion, so we can compare the list randomization method with a regular survey.”
Cuando se les preguntó directamente, menos del 10 por ciento de los encuestados dijo haber utilizado esos recursos para gastos del hogar o consumo. Con el método propuesto por Karlan y Zimmerman, el reporte fue de entre 20 y 30 por ciento.
Un pensamiento final: tal vez ser emprendedor en países poco desarrollados no signifique lo mismo que en EUA:
“Research from other studies increasingly suggests that actually microfinance loans do not have that huge an impact on business productivity anyway, and that much of their benefit is to help smooth out unpredictable income for day-to-day spending. Microloans can have a positive impact even without new business investment or dynamic entrepreneurism. Entrepreneurism is sexy in America. In developing countries, for most, it is synonymous with ‘I don’t have a job.’”
Las estadísticas dicen que hay un 30% de probabilidad de que sonríe porque va en camino a comprarse una TV nueva. Fuente.